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RIR-3002 · Logged 13 July 2026
Optimizing Horizon Scanning Inputs to Enhance Predictive Value in National Innovation Policy Scenarios
This research evaluates the predictive performance of horizon scanning compared to conventional forecasting methods in government scenarios. It suggests that refining input data and broadening field scope may further improve the predictive accuracy of future scenarios.
In plain words
Horizon scanning means searching widely for early signs of change. Would feeding it more varied sources of information make national innovation scenarios better at predicting what actually happens, compared with ordinary forecasting?
Primary research question
To what extent does the diversification of input data sources improve the predictive value of horizon scanning scenarios?
Knowledge gap
What remains worth asking
It remains useful to test whether specific adjustments to input data layers and field breadth consistently correlate with higher predictive accuracy.
Potential contribution
Why it may matter
Refining these methodologies can lead to more reliable foresight tools for national innovation systems.
Academic placement
Academic fields and topic tags
Study frame: National innovation system scenario planning · Method signals: Survey Research, Comparative Analysis
Possible study pathways
One question, different levels
Professional master’s / MBA
Innovation strategy and policy evaluation
Research master’s
Methodological validation of foresight techniques
Doctoral
Quantitative assessment of predictive foresight models
- originality
- Moderate
- methodology
- Advanced
- Data access
- Moderate
- ethics
- Accessible
Quality and audit
88/100 quality
Safeguard-based audit was not recorded under the prior standard.
- Builds directly on the authors' implications for improving predictive value.
- Open-access scholarly source and DOI metadata verified
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Research Idea curation
- DOI and bibliographic metadata independently resolved
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- The research direction is transparently marked as AI-inferred
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APA 7 source
Washida, Y., & Yahata, A. (2020). Predictive value of horizon scanning for future scenarios. foresight, 23(1), 17-32. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-05-2020-0047
Paper abstract and discussion context; AI-inferred direction
This is an AI-inferred direction. The source authors did not state it as a recommendation.
Open source ↗